INDICES — المؤشرات·Vol. XI · Issue 22 · Published 06:00 Riyadh, Sunday 12 October 2025
Policy Risk Index — Week of 12 October 2025
A weekly reading of policy and regulatory risk across twelve GCC and Levant jurisdictions, refreshed each Sunday morning. Lower scores denote a more predictable operating environment for cross-border capital and corporate strategy.
Curated by the AlMushahed Analyst Desk|Reviewed by the Senior Editor|Last refresh: 12 October 2025, 05:48 AST
▍12 jurisdictions scored weekly across the GCC and the Levant — with a continuous historical series back to January 2015.
▍Four sub-pillars feed the headline number: executive stability, regulatory predictability, fiscal-monetary posture, and security-incident exposure.
▍Sourced documents cited for every move — Cabinet decrees, central-bank circulars, parliamentary committee notes, and tier-1 Arabic op-eds.
▍Median 4.2 hours from a cited event to a published movement note — the fastest Arabic-language benchmark recorded in the 2024 MENA Media Audit.
§ II · METHODOLOGY
How the index is built — and who reviews it.
The AlMushahed Policy Risk Index is a composite score on a 0–100 scale, where 0 denotes the most predictable operating environment and 100 the least. It is not a market or investment signal; it is a reading of institutional, regulatory, and security friction that directly affects cross-border decision-making in the Arab world.
I. The four sub-pillars
Each weekly score is the weighted sum of four sub-indices, calibrated against historical baselines from 2015 to the prior quarter.
▍Executive stability (30%) — cabinet continuity, decree throughput, parliamentary confidence measures, and the absence of constitutional impasse.
▍Regulatory predictability (30%) — frequency and reversibility of ministerial and central-bank circulars, licensing timelines, and judicial review outcomes.
▍Fiscal-monetary posture (25%) — central-bank policy direction, sovereign-debt servicing, currency-market interventions, and IMF programme adherence.
▍Security-incident exposure (15%) — sub-national incidents, cross-border spillover, and disruption to logistics and energy corridors.
II. Data sources and citation rule
Every weekly move cites a primary document — Cabinet decree number, central-bank circular reference, parliamentary committee note, or a tier-1 Arabic op-ed. Aggregate quotations and unattributed summaries are not accepted. The full source ledger is published with the index every Sunday morning and is included in the Pro-tier archive for prior weeks.
III. Review and independence
The methodology is reviewed each quarter by the four-person senior analyst desk — averaging fourteen years of regional experience — and signed off by the Editor-in-Chief before publication. The independence charter has been published since launch: no single client accounts for more than 4% of revenue, and no analyst is permitted to hold a position in a security directly under coverage.
IV. What the index is not
The index is not a stock-level recommendation, a credit rating, or a real-time signal. It is a weekly editorial product, published each Sunday at 06:00 Riyadh time, designed to be read before the working week begins. Movements are dated, sourced, and conservative; a flat reading (→ 0.0) means no material change in the cited drivers, not that nothing happened.
“An index is only useful to a decision-maker if it names what changed, where, and on the basis of which document. Anything else is a thermometer with no scale.”
§ III · INSTITUTIONAL USE
Who relies on the index, in measured numbers.
The index is read each Sunday morning by sovereign-wealth, corporate-strategy, and government-affairs desks across the region. The numbers below describe that readership, not a marketing claim.
140+
Institutional subscribers
Sovereign-wealth funds, listed corporates, and government-affairs desks with the index integrated into weekly Monday-morning briefings.
12
Jurisdictions, weekly
Six GCC member states and six Levant jurisdictions — each scored on the four-pillar methodology, sourced and dated.
11yrs
Continuous series
Historical scores back to January 2015 — used by subscribers to back-test exposure assumptions against the post-2015 Arab-world policy cycle.
Audit reference: 2024 MENA Media Audit (independent). Subscription count verified as of Q1 2025.
§ IV · PRO TIER
Open the full index archive — and the weekly analyst note.
The public table above is the front page. Inside the Pro tier, each of the twelve jurisdictions has its own page: the full weekly score since January 2015, the four sub-pillar breakdowns, the source ledger, and a Sunday-morning analyst note of 600–900 words that names what changed and why.
▍Full historical series — back to January 2015, with all sub-pillar breakdowns and source citations.
▍Weekly analyst note — a 600–900-word editorial read on each jurisdiction, published at 06:00 Riyadh.
▍Desk query — subscribers may submit two written questions per quarter to the senior analyst desk.
▍Export — CSV and PDF export of the weekly index, permitted under the Pro licence for internal use.
No card required for the first 14 days. Cancel from inside the account at any time. Annual Pro is billed in USD; GCC-resident teams may request an AED/SAR invoice via [email protected].
AlMushahed for Policy Media and Research LLC · 14 Mecca Street, Al Abdali Boulevard, Amman 11118, Jordan · [email protected] · +962 6 464 0280
